Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71f3…6784 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+9%) realized +$2 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 14% -12.9%
≤30d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 14% -12.9%
≤90d 7 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 14% -12.9%
all 7 -18.5% -26.3% 29% 14% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 14% -12.9%
10% -33.3% 0% -21.2%
15% -39.8% 0% -28.9%
20% -45.7% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $55 $93 +$38 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $68 +$11 +17%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $29 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $199 −$6 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $79 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 8h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 29h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 2d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $29 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 4d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 4d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 6d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 6d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 6d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $28 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 6d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $193 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $199 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.20 · official $93.20 (match) · 28 history records