Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71f2…ee56 sports 74 markets active 3d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$87
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$21
other 9% +$40
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.9% -25.7% 60% 20% -39.5%
≤30d 8 -17.2% -25.1% 62% 38% -23.6%
≤90d 59 -14.4% -22.5% 44% 29% -16.4%
all 74 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -9.6%
10% -26.1% 30% -18.2%
15% -33.3% 26% -26.1%
20% -39.8% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage119d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $47 +$4 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $95 −$74 -78%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $97 +$4 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$16 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner May 16 $22 +$6 +29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -89%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $3 −$2 -91%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $37 −$35 -93%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $4 −$3 -67%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ Apr 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $21 −$4 -19%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 23 $83 −$1 -1%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 23 $81 +$2 +2%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $18 −$6 -31%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 22 $6 $0 +3%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Win Apr 22 $7 −$2 -23%
Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $25 −$18 -70%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: DNSTY vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Apr 21 $10 −$2 -21%
Valorant: ZETA DIVISION vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $4 +$13 +359%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 18 $44 −$20 -46%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $4 −$1 -28%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $189 +$75 +40%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $31 +$8 +27%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $46 +$30 +65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 17 $71 −$27 -38%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $36 +$27 +75%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 17 $4 +$2 +49%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $43 +$97 +226%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 17 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Ma Apr 17 $104 +$6 +5%
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Apr 17 $18 −$8 -45%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $40 +$29 +73%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $58 +$5 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $142 −$101 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 15 $87 +$50 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 75¢ $47 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 16¢ $21 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $95 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $92 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 7¢ $6 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 6¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 8¢ $2 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 4¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $29 39d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $29 40d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL Global Esports 1¢ $1 40d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $22 40d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Global Esports 10¢ $5 40d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL T1 4¢ $0 41d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 43¢ $3 41d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 4¢ $3 41d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 52¢ $37 41d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ BUY FlyQuest 40¢ $17 57d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 44¢ $17 57d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 53¢ $21 57d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner BUY LOUD 13¢ $20 61d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY LOUD 3¢ $5 61d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $81 62d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha SELL FUT Esports 64¢ $82 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records