Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ed…d338
economics · 128 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$129,158 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156,091 · open +$24,191
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$568,957
Realized−$156,091
Unrealized+$24,191
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses50 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions63
Markets (closed)124 / 128
History coverage97d
Avg bet$14,903
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 63 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,628
7 days−$32,620
14 days−$21,907
30 days−$21,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $308,493 $336,759 +$28,265 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $68,050 $72,373 +$4,323 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 71¢ 60¢ $67,633 $57,906 −$9,727 (-14%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 99¢ $23,666 $27,056 +$3,390 (+14%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 27¢ 72¢ $6,892 $18,569 +$11,678 (+169%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $6,800 $6,837 +$37 (+1%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 53¢ 84¢ $3,200 $5,055 +$1,854 (+58%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No 75¢ 93¢ $3,701 $4,578 +$877 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 60¢ $5,425 $4,537 −$887 (-16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $4,407 $4,384 −$23 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 30¢ $7,728 $4,091 −$3,637 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 30¢ $9,090 $4,076 −$5,014 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 68¢ $4,000 $3,425 −$575 (-14%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,286 $3,411 +$125 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $3,144 $3,150 +$5 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $3,000 $2,929 −$71 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $6,750 $2,475 −$4,275 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 44¢ $1,800 $1,252 −$548 (-30%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $987 $1,059 +$72 (+7%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $703 $787 +$84 (+12%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1,885 $753 −$1,132 (-60%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No 79¢ 68¢ $873 $742 −$131 (-15%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $458 $475 +$17 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $402 $306 −$95 (-24%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $192 $256 +$64 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Jun 12 $189 −$186 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1? Jun 12 $6,190 −$6,190 -100%
Will Poland win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Jun 12 $387 −$387 -100%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 12 $16,937 −$17,599 -104%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 12 $4,004 −$4,595 -115%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 19? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
US bank failure by January 31? Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Jun 12 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin 15%+ daily candle in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision? Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Congo" during events with Polish president on Septembe Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision? Jun 12 $1,177 −$1,177 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 12 $485 −$485 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$65 -65%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e Jun 08 $34 +$8 +23%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $930 +$73 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 48% +$77,135
world 47% −$181,218
crypto 5% −$6,970
other 0% +$11,570
finance 0% +$132
tech 0% −$25
politics 0% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $66 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $120 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 18¢ $553 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 90¢ $128 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $135 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $142 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 50¢ $184 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,525 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $35 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $4,400 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,505 3h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $94 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,100 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 6¢ $84 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5,283 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1,587 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $55 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $55 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $55 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $26 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $57 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $32 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $115 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $51 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $54 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $92 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $92 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $36 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $28 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $359 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -96.7% -97.0% 2% 2% -99.8%
≤30d 63 -72.7% -75.3% 17% 5% -35.0%
≤90d 124 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 16% -20.9%
all 124 -20.9% -28.4% 40% 16% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 16% -20.9%
10% -35.3% 12% -28.4%
15% ← realistic here -41.5% 9% -35.3%
20% -47.3% 6% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568,957.05 · official $569,092.45 (match) · 3500 history records