Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71ec…e48c weather 237 markets active 9h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$533 (+0%) realized +$540 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate59%140W / 96L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$112
14 days+$39
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$473
crypto 7% −$67
other 3% +$316
sports 2% −$148
weather 1% −$95
economics 1% −$8
finance 0% −$5
politics 0% +$31
tech 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 27% +7.2%
≤30d 63 +0.4% -9.1% 27% 21% -10.7%
≤90d 100 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 18% -10.6%
all 236 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -24.1% 9% -18.0%
15% -31.4% 8% -25.9%
20% -38.1% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses140 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage628d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$78 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$50 +293%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$34 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +112%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $14 −$12 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$55 +1061%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$5 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $725 −$18 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$10 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $31 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $41 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $44 −$19 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $114 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 76¢ $67 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.82 · official $3.72 (match) · 943 history records