Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x71eb…b6f1 crypto 1763 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$9,172 (-44%) realized −$9,165 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%728W / 492L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day282.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8,567
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 883 +42.1% +28.6% 55% 55% +36.2%
≤30d 1220 +48.9% +34.7% 60% 60% +39.1%
≤90d 1220 +48.9% +34.7% 60% 60% +39.1%
all 1220 +48.9% +34.7% 60% 60% +39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.7% 60% +39.1%
10% ← realistic here +21.9% 60% +25.8%
15% +10.1% 60% +13.6%
20% -0.7% 60% +2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,165
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses728 / 492
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1220 / 1763
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day282.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -9050%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $8 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $9 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 3500 history records