Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71eb…4c2d sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$379 (-8%) realized −$364 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%73W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$146
14 days+$79
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$105
sports 30% −$142
crypto 16% −$221
economics 1% −$27
politics 0% −$20
world 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +24.1% +12.3% 54% 54% +15.6%
≤30d 78 -6.8% -15.6% 42% 41% -13.3%
≤90d 124 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 35% -25.0%
all 185 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 39% -15.0%
10% -21.6% 39% -23.2%
15% -29.2% 39% -30.6%
20% -36.1% 36% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$364
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses73 / 112
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)185 / 192
History coverage222d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $88 $73 −$15 (-17%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 48¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$19 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$23 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 +$7 +39%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 +$16 +65%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 −$4 -35%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $19 +$25 +129%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$49 +69%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $53 −$52 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $54 +$39 +73%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$10 +49%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$13 +127%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $62 −$29 -47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Bosnia and Her Jun 24 $10 +$41 +397%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$14 +146%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $38 −$28 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$37 +128%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$27 +280%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 +$18 +143%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $32 +$20 +62%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $32 +$48 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$85 +170%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$52 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$28 +55%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $95 +$40 +42%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $13 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $13 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 8h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $24 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $41 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $3 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $3 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 34h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 43¢ $19 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 6¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 20¢ $9 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 5¢ $3 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $93 3d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 53¢ $30 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 88¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.78 · official $155.05 (match) · 418 history records