Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71e9…04ad crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-3%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.9% -33.8% 28% 28% -32.4%
≤30d 36 -26.9% -33.8% 28% 28% -32.4%
≤90d 36 -26.9% -33.8% 28% 28% -32.4%
all 36 -26.9% -33.8% 28% 28% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 28% -32.4%
10% -40.2% 28% -38.9%
15% -45.9% 25% -44.8%
20% -51.2% 25% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$187 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $728 +$653 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $1,131 −$134 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $797 −$797 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$209 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $209 +$273 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $210 +$310 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $159 +$391 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $157 +$851 +541%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $227 +$71 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $80 +$65 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $135 −$135 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$103 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $485 −$485 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $179 −$85 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $401 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $189 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $209 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $316 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,382 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $728 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $996 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $863 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $211 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $209 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records