Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x71e9…bc32 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$657 (+10%) realized +$662 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$511per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$1,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$165

7 days−$165

14 days−$165

30 days−$165

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-12.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-26.3%	-33.4%	62%	50%	-12.9%
≤30d	8	-26.3%	-33.4%	62%	50%	-12.9%
≤90d	10	-2.9%	-12.2%	70%	60%	-1.3%
all	10	-2.9%	-12.2%	70%	60%	-1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.2%	60%	-1.3%
10%	-20.6%	30%	-10.7%
15%	-28.3%	30%	-19.3%
20%	-35.3%	20%	-27.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$155 vs −$203 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$1,335

Realized+$662

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)10 / 13

History coverage55d

Avg bet$511

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$1,247	$1,243	−$4 (-0%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$43	$46	+$2 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,603	+$19	+1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,014	+$131	+13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$229	−$218	-95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$147	+$27	+18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$220	−$220	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$171	−$171	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$791	+$163	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$286	+$104	+36%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$662	+$533	+81%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$108	+$109	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$894	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	89¢	$893	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$781	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	98¢	$781	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	84¢	$729	6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	70¢	$729	6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$364	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	83¢	$364	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$285	7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$229	9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$248	26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$422	26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$210	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$174	26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$46	26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$53	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$147	26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	78¢	$287	29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$504	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$389	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$286	37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$220	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	83¢	$171	2d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	SELL Yes	89¢	$1,195	53d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$146	53d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$210	53d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$217	53d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$108	53d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	47¢	$223	54d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	47¢	$83	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.30 · official $1,335.30 (match) · 33 history records