Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x71e8…ec9d crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+6%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%88W / 80L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$94
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 51% +1.3%
≤30d 47 -2.7% -11.9% 51% 49% +0.5%
≤90d 168 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 48% -2.9%
all 168 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 48% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 48% -2.9%
10% -25.3% 42% -12.2%
15% -32.5% 17% -20.7%
20% -39.1% 14% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses88 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$33 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $123 +$74 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$51 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$44 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records