Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71e7…f81c other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-28%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$253
other 46% −$15
sports 5% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -63.5% -67.0% 16% 16% -60.4%
≤30d 25 -63.5% -67.0% 16% 16% -60.4%
≤90d 25 -63.5% -67.0% 16% 16% -60.4%
all 25 -63.5% -67.0% 16% 16% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.0% 16% -60.4%
10% ← realistic here -70.2% 16% -64.2%
15% -73.0% 16% -67.7%
20% -75.7% 16% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $136 −$130 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$13 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$84 +103%
Théo Hernández: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $69 −$66 -95%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 19h
Théo Hernández: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.82 · official $37.84 (match) · 63 history records