trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -16.2% | -24.2% | 83% | 0% | -13.0% |
| all | 21 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 81% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $569 | $569 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 34¢ | 23¢ | $68 | $46 | −$22 (-32%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 26¢ | 20¢ | $16 | $12 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $568 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? | May 22 | $559 | +$4 | +1% |
| Magic vs. Suns | Apr 01 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? | Apr 01 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? | Apr 01 | $405 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | Mar 28 | $468 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | Mar 22 | $903 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? | Mar 19 | $900 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Mar 17 | $450 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? | Mar 14 | $450 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Mar 12 | $452 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 02 | $439 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Feb 26 | $451 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? | Feb 21 | $529 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | Feb 17 | $534 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? | Feb 12 | $529 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Feb 11 | $534 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 08 | $542 | +$3 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $526 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 27 | $1,044 | +$1 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 18 | $503 | $0 | +0% |