Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x71e0…8c7d other 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$149 (+12%) realized +$74 · open +$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +670% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +543% what you keep after slip

Net edge+543%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day10.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+596.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+669.8%	+596.5%	67%	67%	-40.0%
≤30d	3	+669.8%	+596.5%	67%	67%	-40.0%
≤90d	3	+669.8%	+596.5%	67%	67%	-40.0%
all	3	+669.8%	+596.5%	67%	67%	-40.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+596.5%	67%	-40.0%
10%	+529.8%	67%	-45.7%
15%	+469.0%	67%	-51.0%
20%	+413.2%	67%	-55.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +118% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +670% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$49 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,175

Realized+$74

Unrealized+$75

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)3 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day10.7

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	40¢	50¢	$300	$372	+$72 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$100	$107	+$7 (+7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	28¢	30¢	$100	$105	+$5 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	60¢	60¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	55¢	55¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	56¢	50¢	$100	$91	−$9 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	−$49	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$22	+109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$108	+106%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$50	26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	39¢	$204	36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$208	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.05 · official $1,174.72 (match) · 18 history records