Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71df…9aa0 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$284
other 16% +$213
world 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 10% -10.2%
≤30d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 10% -10.2%
≤90d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 10% -10.2%
all 40 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 10% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 10% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 8% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $217 −$11 -5%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $170 −$18 -11%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$30 -12%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 16 $435 −$2 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $215 −$15 -7%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $330 −$2 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $195 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $483 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $45 +$18 +41%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $220 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $140 +$137 +98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 +$21 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $425 $0 -0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$1 -15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $415 +$3 +1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $85 +$5 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $340 +$117 +34%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $290 +$209 +72%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $121 $0 +0%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 13 $74 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 53¢ $206 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 48¢ $240 4h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 48¢ $240 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $217 11h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 29¢ $97 13h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $185 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $108 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $60 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $41 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $1 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $19 14h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $185 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 89¢ $77 14h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $3 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $3 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 15h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 52¢ $12 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $2 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $7 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 88¢ $76 15h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 52¢ $13 15h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $2 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $2 16h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 34¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records