Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71de…5f91 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$2
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$9
world 26% −$23
crypto 25% +$6
other 9% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 17% -2.4%
≤30d 13 -5.0% -14.1% 69% 23% -14.3%
≤90d 16 -9.9% -18.5% 69% 19% -14.1%
all 16 -9.9% -18.5% 69% 19% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 19% -14.1%
10% -26.3% 6% -22.3%
15% -33.4% 0% -29.8%
20% -39.9% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage39d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 85¢ 81¢ $74 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $31 −$4 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $197 −$5 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $75 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $36 3h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $22 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $22 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $20 10d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $13 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $20 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 17d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $20 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $20 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $163 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 31d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $1 33d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 33d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.61 · official $170.61 (match) · 52 history records