trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 100% | 17% | -2.4% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -5.0% | -14.1% | 69% | 23% | -14.3% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 69% | 19% | -14.1% |
| all | 16 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 69% | 19% | -14.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.5% | 19% | -14.1% |
| 10% | -26.3% | 6% | -22.3% |
| 15% | -33.4% | 0% | -29.8% |
| 20% | -39.9% | 0% | -36.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | No | 85¢ | 81¢ | $74 | $71 | −$4 (-5%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 26 | $50 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | Jun 26 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 26 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? | Jun 25 | $20 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | Jun 25 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 17 | $31 | −$4 | -14% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$7 | -37% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $197 | −$5 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? | Jun 08 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | May 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | May 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | May 21 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |