Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x71da…bc9e sports 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10,323 (+19%) realized +$9,815 · open +$508
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%132W / 110L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$316est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,795
7 days+$5,092
14 days+$5,297
30 days+$5,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$7,690
other 35% +$2,233
crypto 2% +$558
world 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +32.0% +19.4% 60% 60% +28.7%
≤30d 52 +36.7% +23.7% 62% 62% +29.4%
≤90d 163 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 42% -9.4%
all 242 +20.8% +9.3% 55% 54% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 54% +7.9%
10% -1.2% 53% -2.4%
15% -10.7% 53% -11.8%
20% -19.5% 51% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$189 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,663
Realized+$9,815
Unrealized+$508
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses132 / 110
Est. fees paid−$316
Open positions4
Markets (closed)242 / 246
History coverage132d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $300 $769 +$469 (+156%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $317 $320 +$3 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $314 $310 −$4 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $224 $264 +$40 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $315 +$359 +114%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $610 −$297 -49%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $305 +$308 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $325 −$320 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $315 −$16 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 +$318 +104%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $356 +$497 +140%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $142 +$169 +119%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$631 +206%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $356 +$405 +114%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $137 −$134 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $317 −$225 -71%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $258 +$250 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $125 +$181 +144%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $356 +$519 +146%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $152 +$155 +102%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $347 +$365 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $355 +$318 +90%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $224 −$220 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $255 +$440 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $375 +$336 +90%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $137 −$135 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $356 −$350 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $355 +$234 +66%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $305 +$320 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $305 +$362 +119%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $105 +$151 +144%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $356 +$391 +110%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $234 +$278 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $345 +$274 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $243 +$164 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $406 +$394 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $305 +$362 +119%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $355 +$362 +102%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $356 −$350 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $254 +$370 +146%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$355 +140%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $102 +$231 +226%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 25 $102 +$131 +129%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $203 +$168 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $322 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $319 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $305 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $295 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $315 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $305 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $325 7h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $298 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 46¢ $298 7h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $315 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $315 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $305 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $304 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $356 25h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $142 27h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $254 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $306 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 26¢ $137 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $91 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $317 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $356 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $258 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner BUY Algeria 40¢ $125 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $304 2d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $224 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $347 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $356 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $152 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $355 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,663.40 · official $1,663.40 (match) · 509 history records