Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x71da…3ccc other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$280 (-14%) realized −$276 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$244
14 days+$648
30 days+$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$523
sports 16% −$62
crypto 10% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +66.2% +50.3% 60% 60% +40.5%
≤30d 15 +109.4% +89.5% 60% 60% +53.4%
≤90d 35 +11.3% +0.7% 31% 31% +26.5%
all 35 +11.3% +0.7% 31% 31% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 31% +26.5%
10% -8.9% 31% +14.4%
15% -17.7% 31% +3.4%
20% -25.8% 29% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$17 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 53
History coverage80d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 17¢ 12¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $200 −$42 -21%
Portugal to win the second half? AND Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $142 +$134 +94%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
France leading at halftime? AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Wil Jun 23 $41 +$107 +261%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 +$51 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$27 +103%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $9 +$103 +1101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $34 +$66 +197%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals Jun 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$35 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +75%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 Jun 20 $173 +$211 +122%
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $60 −$57 -95%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Apr 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 10 $16 −$7 -41%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 10 $40 +$16 +39%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Apr 10 $7 +$33 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $14 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 18¢ $95 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $109 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 2¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 32¢ $137 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $138 4d
Portugal to win the second half? AND Portugal leading at halftime? SELL 98¢ $276 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Portugal to win the second half? AND Portugal leading at halftime? BUY 50¢ $142 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND France leading at halftime BUY 10¢ $13 6d
France leading at halftime? AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Wil BUY 27¢ $41 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $71 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 6¢ $13 7d
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $40 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY 8¢ $9 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY 8¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY 12¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY 14¢ $13 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY 5¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 7d
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $9 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.30 · official $102.01 · 100 history records