Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71d8…6b23
weather · 3 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$19 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$26 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -57.8%
≤30d 2 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -57.8%
≤90d 2 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -57.8%
all 2 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 50% -57.8%
10% -36.3% 50% -61.8%
15% -42.5% 50% -65.5%
20% -48.1% 50% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.09 · official $17.09 (match) · 4 history records