Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d5…ac07 politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$8
politics 28% −$1
sports 14% −$4
economics 12% +$1
other 12% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 9% -10.2%
≤30d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 27% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 27 +3.7% -6.2% 30% 7% -9.7%
all 54 +1.8% -7.9% 28% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage330d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $97 −$3 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $27 +$4 +14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $228 −$6 -3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $3 $0 -10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $34 −$4 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $655 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $776 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $651 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $218 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 04 $653 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 24 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $94 59m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $97 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $76 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $88 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $88 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $88 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $80 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $96 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $87 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records