Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x71d2…4be6 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$600 (-6%) realized −$858 · open +$258
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,251
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,181
other 46% +$810
crypto 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤30d 23 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 27 -11.2% -19.7% 41% 41% -18.6%
all 28 -9.9% -18.4% 43% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 43% -16.6%
10% -26.2% 43% -24.6%
15% -33.4% 39% -31.9%
20% -39.9% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$230 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,103
Realized−$858
Unrealized+$258
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage232d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 55¢ 86¢ $485 $750 +$265 (+55%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $360 $352 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $214 −$17 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $313 +$137 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $289 −$285 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$322 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $245 −$243 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $481 −$480 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $257 −$254 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$130 +216%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,463 +$787 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $208 +$192 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 −$8 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $278 +$212 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $252 −$249 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $205 +$512 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$62 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $243 +$101 +41%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $395 −$393 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $382 −$378 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $464 +$312 +67%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $498 −$487 -98%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $750 +$139 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $196 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $363 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $214 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $289 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $289 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $289 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $313 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $245 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 32h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $56 42h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $425 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $304 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $257 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $314 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $318 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $323 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $169 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $338 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $208 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $49 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $72 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,102.64 · official $1,102.64 (match) · 55 history records