Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d0…b73a weather 822 markets active 5d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$577 (-2%) realized −$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%751W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$435
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$671
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.2% -35.9% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤30d 45 -7.0% -15.8% 71% 51% -6.2%
≤90d 822 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 9% -10.1%
all 822 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 9% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$47 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses751 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)822 / 822
History coverage75d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 822 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$16 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $79 −$73 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$10 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $461 −$341 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $71 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $111 −$108 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 +$17 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $356 +$89 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $33 +$41 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $272 +$111 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $205 +$77 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $145 +$65 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? May 29 $486 −$483 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29? May 29 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $69 −$69 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 29 $523 +$131 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 29 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 28 $409 +$41 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $93 +$18 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26? May 27 $148 +$19 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $310 +$37 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $128 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $132 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $297 +$127 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $357 +$113 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 22? May 22 $257 +$29 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $122 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May May 21 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 21 $91 +$30 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 16? May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 16? May 16 $71 +$13 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 15 $100 −$79 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $48 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $38 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 61¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 61¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 61¢ $22 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $14 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 70¢ $21 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 79¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 72¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 72¢ $17 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 84¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 85¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 70¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? BUY No 72¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 57¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? SELL No 5¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? SELL No 4¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2815 history records