Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71d0…6d72
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
−$59 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,492
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)4 / 13
History coverage93d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 8 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $311 $312 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $303 $306 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $219 $218 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $39 −$31 -80%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Mar 14 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
world 4% −$59
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -93.4% -94.0% 0% 0% -89.5%
all 4 -61.7% -65.4% 25% 25% -88.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.4% 25% -88.1%
10% -68.7% 25% -89.2%
15% -71.7% 0% -90.3%
20% -74.5% 0% -91.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,491.98 · official $1,491.98 (match) · 17 history records