Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71cf…5a19 crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+3%) realized +$71 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%95W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day165.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
world 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤30d 158 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤90d 158 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% -9.6%
all 158 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 60% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 58% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 45% -26.2%
20% -31.6% 34% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses95 / 63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day165.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 42¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$14 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$28 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$23 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$18 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $18 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.75 · official $3.03 (match) · 260 history records