Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x71ce…1f2a crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$75 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$131
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$157
other 15% +$50
sports 14% +$22
world 3% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 25% -22.6%
≤30d 36 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 25% -22.6%
≤90d 36 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 25% -22.6%
all 67 +5.3% -4.7% 43% 42% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 42% -20.5%
10% -13.9% 40% -28.1%
15% -22.2% 36% -35.1%
20% -29.8% 33% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage110d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 0¢ 52¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$73 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$49 +238%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$101 +982%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 +$62 +606%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -16%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $14 +$22 +152%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$25 +250%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$48 +52%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 07 $1 +$3 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 07 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 07 $14 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 07 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 07 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 07 $14 +$12 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 24h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 29¢ $10 40h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 41h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.26 · official $29.26 (match) · 123 history records