Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
71 0x71cd…912d sports 844 markets active 0h ago coverage 287d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 287d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$193,736 (+316%) realized +$193,642 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +434% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +345% what you keep after slip
Net edge+345%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%434W / 502L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,594
7 days−$1,594
14 days−$1,594
30 days−$2,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$60,042
other 43% +$58,968
world 2% −$1,260
politics 0% −$265
crypto 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+382.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +12.8% +2.1% 9% 9% -86.1%
≤30d 106 +29.6% +17.3% 11% 10% -85.1%
≤90d 133 +168.9% +143.3% 24% 23% +0.2%
all 936 +433.5% +382.7% 46% 45% +103.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +382.7% 45% +103.4%
10% +336.5% 44% +83.9%
15% +294.3% 42% +66.2%
20% +255.6% 40% +49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +433% · $-wt +199% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +497% → late +370% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$28 · ×10.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.18 per $1 lost it wins $9.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized+$193,642
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses434 / 502
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)936 / 844
History coverage287d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $640 $533 −$107 (-17%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $120 $305 +$185 (+154%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $198 $243 +$45 (+23%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 9¢ 4¢ $45 $18 −$28 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuck" during September? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-17? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Hungary end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July? Jun 28 $16 +$42 +272%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Will England U21 beat Germany U21 in regular time? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SK Slovan Bratislava win on 2025-08-28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in June? Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$5 +729%
Pirates vs. Rockies Jun 28 $583 −$583 -100%
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-04? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
MLS: Will Philadelphia Union beat Colorado Rapids? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-09-06? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
MLS: Will Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. Real Betis end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? Jun 28 $1 +$16 +2665%
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September? Jun 28 $8 −$18 -220%
MLS: Will New York City FC beat Sporting Kansas City? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Braves vs. Giants Jun 28 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-08-17? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Benfica vs. Auckland City: 7+ Goals Scored? Jun 28 $1 +$11 +1071%
Will Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-08-19? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cyprus vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Benfica vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Al Hilal vs. Pachuca: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 28 $1 +$52 +9209%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-17? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-30? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 3m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $159 5m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $81 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 9¢ $46 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $72 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ g BUY 7¢ $50 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $142 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Belg BUY 3¢ $100 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $204 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $311 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $25 18d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $36 18d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $36 18d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $4 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $22 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $58 19d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 13¢ $133 28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $457 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.75 · official $1,245.75 (match) · 3500 history records