Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x71cc…9144 other 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,477 (+5%) realized +$859 · open +$1,618
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%188W / 321L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$11,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$77
14 days−$322
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$3,299
sports 22% −$127
crypto 7% −$475
politics 1% −$317
world 1% −$176
economics 0% −$195
culture 0% +$174
tech 0% −$14
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -11.4% -19.9% 38% 38% -7.5%
≤30d 124 -14.4% -22.6% 39% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 247 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 41% +0.6%
all 509 -13.2% -21.5% 37% 37% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 37% -8.9%
10% -29.0% 36% -17.6%
15% -35.9% 34% -25.6%
20% -42.2% 33% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$53 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$11,910
Realized+$859
Unrealized+$1,618
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses188 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions8
Markets (closed)509 / 520
History coverage199d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $9,843 $11,419 +$1,576 (+16%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $187 $196 +$10 (+5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $130 $194 +$64 (+49%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 39¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-24%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 19¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 +$155 +76%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$18 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$5 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $46 −$20 -44%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $105 +$77 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$148 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $56 −$2 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$68 +442%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 +$264 +88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $37 +$45 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $76 +$84 +110%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$1 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$23 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $122 +$118 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $35 +$24 +68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$146 -72%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$49 -37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $303 −$179 -59%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $35 −$12 -35%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $36 −$18 -50%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $13 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $134 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 77¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $14 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 13h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 39¢ $20 14h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 61¢ $24 14h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 62¢ $25 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $132 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $351 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $105 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $98 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $61 32h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 48¢ $32 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 51¢ $21 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $15 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 35h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $25 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,910.09 · official $11,910.09 (match) · 1105 history records