Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ca…3501
politics · 106 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$179,417 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$185,867 · open +$3,834
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57,709
Realized−$185,867
Unrealized+$3,834
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses67 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,202
Open positions7
Markets (closed)245 / 106
History coverage181d
Avg bet$15,335
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 7 History 245 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138,764
7 days−$137,403
14 days−$156,716
30 days−$154,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $28,595 $29,904 +$1,309 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $8,999 $10,693 +$1,694 (+19%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $4,888 $5,219 +$331 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 81¢ $3,722 $4,527 +$805 (+22%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $4,374 $3,900 −$474 (-11%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $3,196 $3,355 +$160 (+5%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? No 82¢ 0¢ $728 $0 −$728 (-100%)
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,029 $0 −$2,029 (-100%)
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Mariners 47¢ 0¢ $940 $0 −$940 (-100%)
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
White Sox vs. Rangers White Sox 33¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Cubs vs. Marlins Marlins 41¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Phillies vs. Rockies Rockies 28¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7,053 $0 −$7,053 (-100%)
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Makhmudov 17¢ 0¢ $1,827 $0 −$1,827 (-100%)
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $7,784 $0 −$7,784 (-100%)
Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $728 −$728 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 12 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 12 $940 −$940 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
White Sox vs. Rangers Jun 12 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Cubs vs. Marlins Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Phillies vs. Rockies Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $932 −$1,975 -212%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2,410 −$2,410 -100%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Jun 12 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,141 −$2,141 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Rays vs. Red Sox Jun 12 $1,439 −$1,532 -106%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 12 $5,261 −$5,261 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Angels vs. Yankees Jun 12 $2,166 −$2,166 -100%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 12 $929 −$798 -86%
Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland? Jun 12 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 12 $470 −$470 -100%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more th Jun 12 $2,046 −$2,046 -100%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 12 $2,248 −$2,248 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 12 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 33% +$25,877
politics 32% −$81,377
world 15% +$14,127
sports 7% −$17,108
other 6% +$6,278
culture 3% +$2,185
finance 2% +$3,589
crypto 0% +$3,000
tech 0% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 10h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $476 10h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2,718 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $166 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $122 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $89 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $353 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $812 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,884 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $820 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $221 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 80¢ $4,444 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,313 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 60¢ $591 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 62¢ $2,427 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,062 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $476 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $3,300 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $780 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $156 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $143 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $160 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,560 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $154 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-65.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -97.3% -97.5% 1% 1% -81.9%
≤30d 158 -90.4% -91.3% 6% 2% -47.8%
≤90d 188 -77.2% -79.4% 17% 7% -24.2%
all 245 -62.4% -65.9% 27% 14% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.9% 14% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -69.2% 7% -26.4%
15% -72.2% 5% -33.5%
20% -74.9% 3% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,708.88 · official $57,709.44 (match) · 3500 history records