Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x71c9…1127 crypto 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$45 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%220W / 19L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$27
14 days−$99
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$34
tech 8% +$6
other 1% −$27
economics 0% −$76
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 35 +55.9% +41.1% 71% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 76 +25.8% +13.9% 86% 3% -9.5%
all 239 +6.4% -3.8% 92% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 1% -9.5%
10% -13.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -21.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -29.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,102) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses220 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 241
History coverage555d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,112 $1,109 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,109 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,101 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,095 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,093 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,088 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,085 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,080 +$5 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $2 +$40 +1968%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $134 −$132 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$10 +982%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,225 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,218 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,215 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,211 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,207 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,198 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,197 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,194 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,190 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,188 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,184 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,182 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,179 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,177 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $1,173 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $1,169 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,161 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,159 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,157 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,155 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,154 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,153 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,152 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,151 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,112 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,109 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,101 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,093 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,085 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,080 8d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.39 · official $1,109.39 (match) · 673 history records