Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

71 0x71c7…b93e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$68 (-7%) realized −$57 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-41.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	16	-34.8%	-41.0%	31%	31%	-53.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.0%	31%	-53.9%
10%	-46.7%	31%	-58.3%
15%	-51.8%	31%	-62.4%
20%	-56.5%	31%	-66.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -50% → late -20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage

Net worth$759

Realized−$57

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Open positions5

Markets (closed)16 / 21

History coverage218d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$411	$403	−$8 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	31¢	30¢	$150	$148	−$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$110	$109	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	88¢	94¢	$19	$20	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Mar 08	$15	−$15	-100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)	Mar 08	$10	−$10	-100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Jan 25	$10	+$5	+52%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	Jan 25	$7	+$15	+212%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jan 25	$5	−$5	-100%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)	Jan 25	$5	−$5	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Nov 22	$3	+$2	+75%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	Nov 21	$7	−$7	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)	Nov 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Nov 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Nov 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Nov 16	$3	−$3	-100%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)	Nov 16	$5	+$7	+141%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)	Nov 16	$12	+$7	+62%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Nov 15	$15	−$15	-100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Nov 15	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$112	1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$150	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$81	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$412	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	19h
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Max Holloway	65¢	$15	105d
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Reinier de Ridder	34¢	$10	105d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$19	147d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Gaethje	32¢	$7	147d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	BUY OMalley	66¢	$10	147d
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Lewis	26¢	$5	147d
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)	BUY Namajunas	27¢	$5	147d
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)	BUY Topuria	57¢	$3	212d
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUY Muhammad	29¢	$7	212d
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Hooker	15¢	$10	212d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	26¢	$4	217d
Will the fight be won by submission?	BUY Yes	22¢	$4	217d
Fight to Go the Distance?	BUY No	37¢	$3	217d
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)	SELL Morales	99¢	$12	217d
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUY Morales	41¢	$5	217d
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)	SELL Prates	99¢	$19	217d
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUY Prates	61¢	$12	218d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Weili	44¢	$15	218d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUY Della Maddalena	28¢	$30	218d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.03 · official $759.03 (match) · 174 history records