Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71c3…3899 world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-7%) realized +$4 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$39
other 36% −$70
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 12% -24.3%
≤30d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 12% -24.3%
≤90d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 12% -24.3%
all 8 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 12% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -24.3%
10% -16.3% 12% -31.6%
15% -24.4% 12% -38.2%
20% -31.8% 12% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$12 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$67 +668%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -50%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.90 · official $74.91 (match) · 17 history records