Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
71 0x71c2…8a18 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3
crypto 16% −$2
other 10% +$1
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 0% -8.5%
all 11 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $44 +$1 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 98¢ $44 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $43 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 30h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $29 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 44h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.24 · official $44.24 (match) · 22 history records