Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x71c1…1bd8 sports 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,390 (+3%) realized +$2,447 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%110W / 48L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$105
14 days+$107
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$404
sports 34% +$1,560
politics 11% −$91
economics 8% −$43
crypto 2% +$530
culture 1% +$29
world 0% −$29
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 43% +1.5%
≤30d 10 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 40% +0.8%
≤90d 40 +2.1% -7.7% 70% 48% -9.3%
all 158 +4.2% -5.7% 70% 50% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 50% -6.2%
10% -14.8% 40% -15.2%
15% -23.0% 30% -23.4%
20% -30.6% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$41 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$1,733
Realized+$2,447
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses110 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions13
Markets (closed)158 / 171
History coverage265d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $602 $597 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $580 $575 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $240 $235 −$5 (-2%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $42 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 45¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $370 +$230 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $135 −$132 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$41 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $49 +$31 +65%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $28 +$2 +7%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $12,210 −$12 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $12,223 −$12 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $12,235 −$12 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $295 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 15 $5 +$5 +85%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 14 $32 +$19 +60%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $17 −$17 -99%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $128 −$127 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $34 −$34 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 31 $100 +$47 +47%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $31 +$9 +28%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $35 +$5 +15%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $26 +$14 +52%
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 27 $4 +$1 +18%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $6 +$4 +59%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Mar 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 23 $700 +$175 +25%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $2,000 −$8 -0%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 19 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $9 +$1 +15%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 19 $22 +$8 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 1h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $58 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $332 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $358 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $135 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $370 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $46 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $49 13d
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $47 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $20 31d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 33d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $100 37d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 44d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 82¢ $20 53d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 58d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $50 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $12,198 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $12,210 65d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12,210 65d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12,223 65d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12,223 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,732.58 · official $1,732.58 (match) · 555 history records