trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 33% | 33% | +14.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 33% | 33% | +14.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 33% | 33% | +14.6% |
| all | 21 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 33% | 29% | -21.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.7% | 29% | -21.4% |
| 10% | -36.5% | 14% | -28.9% |
| 15% | -42.6% | 10% | -35.8% |
| 20% | -48.2% | 5% | -42.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? | Yes | 45¢ | 46¢ | $244 | $247 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 27 | $94 | +$155 | +165% |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $150 | −$56 | -37% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $28 | −$27 | -98% |
| Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26? | Feb 20 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24? | Jan 23 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | Nov 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? | Nov 05 | $561 | −$561 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November? | Nov 03 | $495 | +$66 | +13% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Nov 03 | $753 | −$212 | -28% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? | Nov 01 | $675 | +$32 | +5% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | Nov 01 | $610 | +$66 | +11% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Oct 30 | $626 | −$17 | -3% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | Oct 29 | $1,812 | +$326 | +18% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | Oct 29 | $233 | −$233 | -100% |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Oct 26 | $1,735 | −$506 | -29% |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Oct 25 | $300 | −$53 | -18% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? | Oct 24 | $220 | +$80 | +36% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 20 | $308 | −$8 | -3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Edition | Oct 20 | $415 | −$90 | -22% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October | Oct 15 | $15 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30? | Apr 09 | $125 | +$34 | +27% |