Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71bf…fd15 crypto 421 markets active 5h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+2%) realized +$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%252W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$45
14 days−$65
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.3% -6.6% 70% 63% -7.2%
≤30d 200 +4.7% -5.3% 67% 60% -6.6%
≤90d 421 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 53% -9.7%
all 421 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 53% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 53% -9.7%
10% -16.4% 37% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 29% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 26% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses252 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 421
History coverage74d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$62 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$24 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $43 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $83 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $69 +$66 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $68 +$86 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $121 +$34 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $46 +$38 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $73 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$46 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $115 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $117 +$30 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $38 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $36 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $34 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1242 history records