Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x71bb…1d9d crypto 135 markets active 10h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,906 (+1%) realized +$2,847 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%120W / 5L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$3,957per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$490
14 days+$542
30 days+$1,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$204
finance 23% +$672
economics 17% +$82
politics 14% +$188
other 11% +$309
crypto 8% +$858
tech 4% +$54
sports 0% +$10
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 63 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 74 +1.5% -8.2% 95% 3% -9.1%
all 125 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 3% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,154) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.38 per $1 lost it wins $16.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$10,389
Realized+$2,847
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses120 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)125 / 135
History coverage266d
Avg bet$3,957
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,120 $4,139 +$19 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,265 $3,263 −$2 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,139 $1,169 +$31 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,064 $1,072 +$8 (+1%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $641 $642 +$2 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 22 $3,792 −$49 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 20 $284 +$7 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $72,017 +$174 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 19 $51,765 +$258 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 18 $4,055 +$17 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 17 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $22,219 +$81 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $888 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,154 +$9 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $886 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $2,373 +$32 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $56,914 −$8 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $10,286 +$12 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $32,824 +$24 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $1,314 +$2 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $147 +$3 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $73 +$7 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $18,764 +$31 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $26,071 +$446 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 01 $427 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 01 $2,118 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,926 +$693 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5,227 +$10 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5,512 +$10 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $7 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? May 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? May 30 $271 +$4 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $2,789 +$3 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $2,785 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $35 9h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $30 9h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $164 9h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $14 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $817 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $806 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $468 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $686 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,293 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $411 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,729 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $291 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,154 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,997 2d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $149 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $239 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $235 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $761 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $741 6d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $149 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $148 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $685 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $686 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $91 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,388.94 · official $10,388.94 (match) · 1629 history records