Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ba…07a1
sports · 582 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$203 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$185 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$249
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses217 / 305
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions60
Markets (closed)522 / 582
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 60 History 522 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 55¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 62¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 47¢ 59¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+27%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 20¢ 56¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+180%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 55¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+150%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 80¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $3 −$3 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 $0 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -81%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -23%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $7 +$10 +145%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $4 $0 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $8 −$4 -46%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 04 $4 −$3 -61%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -36%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$19
sports 30% +$120
other 10% +$75
politics 6% −$24
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% +$12
finance 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $1 6h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $4 7h
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $1 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 78¢ $4 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 16h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 16h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 20h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 30¢ $2 21h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 57¢ $1 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 13¢ $2 30h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 18¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.2% -4.8% 49% 34% -26.2%
≤30d 137 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 34% -1.7%
≤90d 277 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 19% -17.5%
all 522 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 29% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 29% -7.2%
10% -18.3% 26% -16.0%
15% -26.2% 24% -24.2%
20% -33.4% 23% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.61 · official $248.15 (match) · 2866 history records