Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x71ba…7edb other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 50L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 13% −$10
other 12% +$27
sports 2% +$12
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +6.0% -4.1% 11% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 50 +3.7% -6.2% 20% 16% -8.6%
all 64 +3.3% -6.5% 22% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -9.4%
10% -15.5% 14% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 12% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage615d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $172 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $7 +$7 +109%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $136 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $118 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $244 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$6 +79%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $4 +$6 +146%
Magic vs. Hawks Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $22 +$23 +108%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $28 +$13 +47%
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders Mar 26 $21 +$24 +113%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 22 $23 +$24 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 29h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 31h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $7 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.66 · official $74.66 (match) · 313 history records