Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b6…3804 weather 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%365W / 19L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$12
14 days+$29
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$72
sports 1% −$169
crypto 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 198 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 384 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 5% -9.6%
all 384 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,021
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses365 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)384 / 389
History coverage75d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $316 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $711 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $27 10m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $197 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $56 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $26 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $202 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $94 40m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $214 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $55 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $53 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $134 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $62 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,020.94 · official $1,020.96 (match) · 1500 history records