Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x71b1…29ab other 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,736 (+1%) realized +$3,737 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 138L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,612per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$33
14 days−$119
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$123
other 43% +$14
sports 9% +$3,791
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% +$2
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 +4.0% -5.9% 13% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 121 +2.9% -6.9% 7% 5% -8.4%
all 175 +9.3% -1.1% 21% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 14% -8.3%
10% -10.6% 14% -17.1%
15% -19.2% 12% -25.1%
20% -27.2% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,199) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$6 · ×21.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.8 per $1 lost it wins $5.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized+$3,737
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,612
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,048 $1,048 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,081 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $566 +$2 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5,434 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $3,051 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $839 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $845 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,618 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6,750 −$8 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,973 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5,451 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,801 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,551 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $855 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,418 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $3,150 −$5 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $73 +$66 +90%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,486 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,763 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,199 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,022 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,939 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,148 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,944 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,408 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,479 −$6 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,304 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $55 +$53 +97%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $533 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $68 +$44 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $48 +$79 +165%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,950 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,787 −$4 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $65 +$66 +101%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,984 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,311 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,313 4h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $531 20h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $532 21h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $812 42h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $813 45h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $765 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $842 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $827 3d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $838 3d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $839 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $844 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $845 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $678 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $678 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $675 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $676 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $677 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $678 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $580 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $581 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $649 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $650 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $571 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,047.94 · official $1,047.94 (match) · 638 history records