Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71af…ab60 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% $0
other 17% +$4
crypto 6% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 9% -9.6%
all 26 +1.3% -8.3% 42% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage374d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 +$3 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $54 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $89 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 13? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ras Baraka win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Je Jun 10 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $18 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $47 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.44 (match) · 102 history records