Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ab…f015
finance · 174 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$95,309 +43%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57,085 · open +$14,419
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71,590
Realized+$57,085
Unrealized+$14,419
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses92 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions41
Markets (closed)134 / 174
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 41 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$7,330
14 days+$9,590
30 days+$25,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $20,620 $23,266 +$2,646 (+13%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 69¢ 86¢ $4,931 $6,097 +$1,166 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 35¢ 98¢ $1,803 $5,072 +$3,269 (+181%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $4,885 $4,916 +$31 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $4,435 $4,697 +$262 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 63¢ 81¢ $2,598 $3,354 +$756 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 69¢ 91¢ $2,336 $3,090 +$754 (+32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 46¢ 98¢ $1,390 $2,981 +$1,591 (+114%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,450 $2,583 +$133 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $1,382 $2,219 +$837 (+61%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1,273 $2,060 +$786 (+62%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,472 $1,608 +$136 (+9%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 16¢ 42¢ $489 $1,317 +$829 (+170%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 57¢ $688 $1,256 +$568 (+83%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 80¢ $1,032 $1,113 +$81 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $871 $924 +$53 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $1,377 $884 −$493 (-36%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 5¢ 28¢ $113 $592 +$479 (+426%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $459 $567 +$107 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 54¢ 98¢ $270 $492 +$222 (+82%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 78¢ 84¢ $390 $418 +$28 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 9¢ 92¢ $27 $281 +$254 (+936%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 56¢ $275 $277 +$2 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $239 $275 +$36 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $319 $255 −$65 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $605 +$115 +19%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $110 +$106 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,906 +$834 +44%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 11 $8,565 +$615 +7%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31? Jun 11 $49 +$145 +294%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Jun 11 $49 +$66 +136%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 08 $663 +$570 +86%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 08 $16,813 +$2,635 +16%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 08 $1,960 +$765 +39%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? Jun 08 $1,438 +$1,478 +103%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $658 +$243 +37%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $5,628 −$5,413 -96%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 04 $337 +$177 +53%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 02 $82 +$119 +146%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $111 −$48 -43%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $490 −$484 -99%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $1,580 −$1,123 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $4,950 +$8,472 +171%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5,741 +$761 +13%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 31 $353 −$340 -96%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $813 −$114 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 30 $100 +$204 +204%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $88 −$87 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $545 +$153 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $145 −$145 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $195 −$9 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 28 $678 −$407 -60%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $301 +$297 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $530 +$260 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $555 +$138 +25%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $348 +$52 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $370 +$80 +22%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $115 +$131 +114%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $171 +$456 +267%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 23 $13 +$8 +61%
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30? May 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 23 $895 +$93 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 23 $55 +$45 +82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 23 $93 +$48 +52%
Will Netflix dip to $70 in April? May 23 $181 +$27 +15%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $388 +$91 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 23 $960 +$40 +4%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30? May 23 $1,155 +$347 +30%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 23 $384 +$216 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 23 $516 +$84 +16%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 22 $2,595 +$405 +16%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $605 −$78 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $5,161 +$13,249 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$42,113
other 34% +$8,316
finance 21% +$20,459
politics 2% +$650
crypto 0% −$416
tech 0% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $275 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 70¢ $0 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 70¢ $26 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 70¢ $60 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $644 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $125 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $48 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $28 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $66 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $32 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $95 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $51 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $99 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $29 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +83.9% +66.4% 100% 90% +11.1%
≤30d 50 +43.1% +29.5% 78% 70% +23.6%
≤90d 134 +49.5% +35.2% 69% 57% +26.6%
all 134 +49.5% +35.2% 69% 57% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.2% 57% +26.6%
10% +22.3% 45% +14.5%
15% ← realistic here +10.5% 35% +3.5%
20% -0.4% 29% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,589.59 · official $71,574.43 (match) · 3500 history records