Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x71ab…5407 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$59
14 days+$49
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$44
world 29% +$3
crypto 6% $0
sports 4% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 45% +1.3%
≤30d 21 -6.8% -15.7% 76% 52% -11.5%
≤90d 21 -6.8% -15.7% 76% 52% -11.5%
all 21 -6.8% -15.7% 76% 52% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 52% -11.5%
10% -23.8% 24% -20.0%
15% -31.1% 10% -27.7%
20% -37.9% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage24d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 88¢ $104 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $96 +$9 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 +$8 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $80 +$8 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $11 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $59 +$10 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$9 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 +$10 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 +$8 +17%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $40 +$9 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$7 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $105 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $96 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $96 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $88 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $59 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $49 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $38 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 12d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 12d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $10 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $10 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 85¢ $34 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 85¢ $11 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 77¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $6 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 71¢ $5 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 21d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 84¢ $93 21d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $45 21d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 82¢ $40 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.45 · official $121.45 (match) · 47 history records