Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71a9…d99c crypto 15 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-29%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$12
other 14% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -40.7%
≤30d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -40.7%
≤90d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -40.7%
all 15 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 60% -40.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 47% -46.3%
15% -22.5% 47% -51.5%
20% -30.1% 40% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records