Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71a9…4b24 other 21 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$390 (-35%) realized −$369 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$308
sports 32% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-77.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -74.6% -77.0% 11% 11% -78.6%
≤30d 9 -74.6% -77.0% 11% 11% -78.6%
≤90d 9 -74.6% -77.0% 11% 11% -78.6%
all 9 -74.6% -77.0% 11% 11% -78.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.0% 11% -78.6%
10% -79.2% 11% -80.6%
15% -81.2% 11% -82.5%
20% -83.1% 11% -84.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$55 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)9 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $51 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $51 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 47h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 47h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $51 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.88 · official $578.88 (match) · 23 history records