Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71a5…b594 sports 656 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,334 (-5%) realized −$5,047 · open +$713
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%256W / 337L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$744est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$578
7 days−$1,116
14 days−$4,387
30 days−$3,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,195
sports 37% −$2,974
politics 5% +$742
world 4% −$386
economics 1% −$52
tech 1% +$188
crypto 1% −$31
culture 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 31% -14.0%
≤30d 338 -3.1% -12.4% 38% 34% -16.2%
≤90d 521 -4.2% -13.4% 43% 39% -16.9%
all 593 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 37% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 37% -15.8%
10% -20.9% 35% -23.8%
15% -28.5% 31% -31.2%
20% -35.5% 27% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$7,220
Realized−$5,047
Unrealized+$713
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses256 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$744
Open positions62
Markets (closed)593 / 656
History coverage160d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $809 $1,863 +$1,054 (+130%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 82¢ $313 $792 +$479 (+153%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 39¢ $65 $616 +$551 (+854%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 96¢ $320 $384 +$64 (+20%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 49¢ 49¢ $345 $343 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Vinicius 86¢ 96¢ $280 $315 +$35 (+12%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $345 $223 −$122 (-35%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $153 $140 −$14 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $125 +$15 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $210 $124 −$86 (-41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $101 $119 +$19 (+18%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 64¢ $102 $118 +$16 (+16%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $78 $96 +$18 (+24%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 56¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 38¢ $64 $89 +$24 (+37%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $210 $88 −$122 (-58%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 50¢ $53 $83 +$30 (+58%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $50 $79 +$28 (+56%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 94¢ $46 $75 +$29 (+64%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 56¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $102 $69 −$33 (-32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 65¢ 50¢ $87 $68 −$19 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +108%
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $128 +$70 +55%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) Jun 20 $899 −$184 -20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $960 −$93 -10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $300 −$19 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $4 +$11 +285%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $13 +$17 +140%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $11 +$13 +117%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $47 −$47 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $17 $0 -2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $546 −$25 -4%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 +$46 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $37 +$13 +34%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $2,805 −$96 -3%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $2,080 −$110 -5%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $715 +$6 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $46 +$44 +97%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $820 −$76 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $295 $0 -0%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $47 +$43 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$1 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,890 −$97 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$7 +117%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$64 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $29 +$31 +105%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $259 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $96 +$42 +44%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $244 −$7 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $43 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $45 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $36 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $46 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $35 1h
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 62¢ $153 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) SELL Gentle Mates 33¢ $83 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) SELL Gentle Mates 33¢ $168 2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) SELL Gentle Mates 37¢ $367 2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) SELL Gentle Mates 40¢ $98 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $46 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 25¢ $73 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 7h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $452 7h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 8h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $593 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $9 10h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 51¢ $88 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $6 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $1 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $30 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $10 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $21 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $21 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $21 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $259 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $221 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $262 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,219.78 · official $7,205.21 (match) · 2973 history records