Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71a4…a2ec crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15 (+6%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$30
sports 14% +$4
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 33% -18.2%
≤30d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 33% -18.2%
≤90d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 33% -18.2%
all 27 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 33% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 33% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 22% -26.0%
15% -24.3% 19% -33.1%
20% -31.7% 15% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$54 +517%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 15 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 72 history records