Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71a0…9a8c crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%179W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day217.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -9.2%
≤30d 344 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 344 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -9.2%
all 344 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover217.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 52% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 52% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 52% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 51% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses179 / 165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)344 / 345
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day217.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 43¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $1.17 (match) · 525 history records