Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719f…0d90 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-16%) realized −$101 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%46W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$70
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$134
tech 11% −$66
other 10% +$43
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -19.8% -27.4% 19% 19% -33.4%
≤30d 85 -15.5% -23.5% 22% 22% -32.2%
≤90d 102 -17.4% -25.2% 25% 25% -33.9%
all 188 -26.2% -33.2% 24% 24% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 24% -35.5%
10% -39.6% 21% -41.7%
15% -45.5% 19% -47.3%
20% -50.8% 19% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses46 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)188 / 213
History coverage98d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will a player representing Japan be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will a player representing Canada be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$8 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$7 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$45 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$6 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$20 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$13 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $12 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 17¢ $5 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.82 · official $40.97 (match) · 486 history records