Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719d…1dab world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% $0
other 19% +$2
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
sports 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.1% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 73 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage484d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $94 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $88 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $133 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $258 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $175 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $267 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $172 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $181 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $182 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $85 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $155 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $90 −$5 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $4 $0 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $27 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 10 $8 +$2 +23%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 06 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $57 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $76 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $95 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $90 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $94 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $82 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $88 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $89 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $89 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $54 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $35 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $87 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $61 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $55 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $87 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records