Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x719d…815b other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$6 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$23
other 35% +$34
sports 27% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 38% -15.2%
≤30d 32 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 38% -15.2%
≤90d 32 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 38% -15.2%
all 32 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 38% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 38% -15.2%
10% -31.0% 34% -23.4%
15% -37.7% 22% -30.8%
20% -43.8% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $57 −$30 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $25 +$22 +89%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $54 −$25 -47%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $57 −$8 -14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $46 +$12 +25%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 +$6 +198%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +139%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 +$12 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $31 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $49 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $57 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $46 5h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 68¢ $25 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $12 27h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.05 · official $24.05 (match) · 64 history records