Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7195…f4ee crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$234 (+8%) realized +$244 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$541
other 30% −$140
sports 4% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 28% +1.3%
≤30d 40 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 28% +1.3%
≤90d 40 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 28% +1.3%
all 40 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 28% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 28% +1.3%
10% -40.2% 28% -8.4%
15% -46.0% 25% -17.3%
20% -51.3% 25% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$50 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 17¢ 10¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $78 +$85 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$59 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $203 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $209 −$60 -28%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $220 −$220 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $209 +$182 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $209 +$801 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$46 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $204 +$367 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $30 +$16 +52%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $82 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $194 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.44 · official $6.62 · 123 history records